Today is Election Day. And while I don't like playing the role of prognosticator, I will oblige and share my thoughts on the outcome of today’s election.

My objective is to help others hear and receive truth. That’s a far different objective than predicting election outcomes. The former focuses on persuading people to accept what is good and true. The latter on measuring our progress.

And I need to confess: I’m much better at persuading than I am at predicting.

That said, let’s get into it.

First, I do not trust polling. That's not to say polls are never right, but it is to say there are a lot of factors working against them.

Polls typically have a margin of error of about 3%. If Candidate A is polling at 46%, his actual support could be as high as 49% or as low as 43%. If Candidate B is polling at 48%, his support could be as high as 51% or as low as 45%.

That’s just how polls work.

And when many elections are decided by only a few percentage points, you can see how this can be problematic.

Polls also have something called a confidence level. This is typically 95%, and it essentially means that if you conducted a poll 100 times, the results would fall within the margin of error 95 times. So 5% of the time, polls have an outlier.

On top of that, Republicans are notoriously undersampled in polls. This undersampling can range from 2-4% in some — or perhaps even many — cases. That can certainly skew the poll, too.

Some pollsters engage in "push polls." These polls are designed to elicit a desired response, not actually report on what people's true opinions are. This is why we should familiarize ourselves with how polls are conducted.

Add to this that many Republicans don't want to admit to a pollster that they are Republicans because of the hatred and disrespect shown them.

They don't want to openly identify with the party many people claim is run by fascists, especially when they've seen the people on the other side of the political chasm burn cities to the ground, assault people, threaten to shoot people and, yes, kill or attempt to kill people. Who could've imagined?

It's for these reasons that I think it's incredibly hard to predict what people will actually do during this election.

But this is just the beginning. Because the Radical Left has had such a stranglehold on the pillars of American society for so long, we have a disproportionate number of crazy, immoral people voting.

And I don't know what crazy, immoral people are going to do. Will they vote? Will they bring their friends? Will they intimidate the normal folks? I don't know.

(By the way, this should serve as a reminder that we need to fight back against the lunatics running these pillars of society the other 729 days between federal elections.)

But back to the point.

We know that the party in power (currently Republicans) typically does not do well in midterm elections. The energy is with those who lost two years prior, and they want to fight back.

The party that won is lulled into a false sense of security, or it may be disheartened by how little of its agenda has actually been implemented since winning the previous election.

Whatever the case, my friends, here are my thoughts and instincts concerning the election today.

The House is going to be close. In order to win control of the House, a political party must win 218 seats. I think the party that wins today will win between 218 and 225 seats. I do not think either party will win 230 or more, but that is possible.

It is very hard to say because this is a turnout election, and some of these races have absolutely no polling data. Candidly, it's possible for either side to win because we're talking about a series of very tight races that can break either way.

That said, I unfortunately think Democrats will win the House. I think in probabilities, and I would say Democrats have a 55-60% chance of winning. That's much less likely than many think, but this is what I think.

I think Republicans hold the Senate. Republicans currently have a 53-47 majority in the Senate. I think they will likely hold less than 53 seats after tonight, but I think they will hold at least 50.

And in a 50/50 tie, VP Vance casts the tiebreaking vote, meaning Democrats have to win 51 seats in order to take control of the Senate.

Keep in mind that only 35 Senate seats are up for election this year (about a third of the Senate is chosen every two years), so it's just harder to flip the Senate in general.

And almost nothing will get done the next two years if this happens.

If Republicans lose one or both chambers of Congress, Trump's agenda is going to come to a virtual stop.

We'll have two years of investigations in the House, a likely impeachment, and a bunch of nonsense. The Senate will likely acquit Trump if and when he is impeached again.

And there will be people in both chambers jockeying to be their party's respective nominee.

It will be a three-ring circus. Nothing productive will get done for the American people, but nothing terrible should happen either.

We'll have what amounts to a two-year fight to create a narrative for the 2028 election. That, of course, is a presidential election year. Both parties will try to find their answer for whatever narrative they can create in 2028.

Democrats will have to decide if they are going to nominate a liberal or a Radical Leftist.

Republicans will have to decide if they will nominate a strong, principled conservative, or a wimpy, slightly less terrifying option than whoever the Democrats nominate.

Who will step up into the gap for Republicans? Will it remain a two-way race between Vance and Rubio? Or will other serious candidates step into the fray?

Will they learn from Trump's example and be strong and direct, or will they soften the message and not clearly communicate what's at stake? I don't know.

But I do think there has never been a more important time in my life for conservatives to regain control of the GOP.

I'm going to do all I can to make sure that happens, and I'd love to have you alongside me.

Haley Stevens, the Democrat who narrowly lost Michigan's Senate primary to Abdul El-Sayed, posted a long explanation of why she's now endorsing Republican Mike Rogers, and her own party is furious with her. We discuss on the Toddcast.

I also get into why you can't trust the polls, what Nick Saban's "focus on the process" has to do with Election Day, and what I think happens in the House and the Senate tonight.

Haley Stevens on X — her full post explaining why she withdrew her endorsement of El-Sayed and endorsed Mike Rogers, the one I read on today's show.

Townhall — Stevens' post, the Democrats' reaction to it, and Rogers' response.

ClickOnDetroit — the main points of her statement, including "We cannot preach inclusion while punishing dissent."

CBS News — the Nov. 1 endorsement, her appearance with Rogers at Perfecting Church in Detroit, and Chuck Schumer calling it a "betrayal."

Newsweek — where the Rebellion PAC grocery ad tying egg prices to aid for Israel came from, and the El-Sayed campaign's response.

Ballotpedia — the August 4 Democratic Senate primary between El-Sayed and Stevens.

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